Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 113 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 329 |
| NJD | 05 | 09 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:30WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 1:51NJDJoseph BlandisiPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Jacob Josefson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 7:47NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 14:07WSHPaul CareyAssists: Matt Niskanen, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Joseph Blandisi stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. NJD Reid Boucher scored
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:32NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26NJDJacob Josefson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:34WSHMike Richards: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33NJDJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
- P3 19:00WSHJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:31
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson8:48
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky12:58
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Laich – Carey – Latta8:02
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner18:37
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt16:53
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Chorney – Orlov10:33
xG 0.08–0.48 (14%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Henrique – Blandisi10:18
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Boucher8:58
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – Farnham8:16
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin11:41
xG 0.11–0.45 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Moore6:57
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas10:15
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Gelinas – Helgeson3:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).