Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 08 | 14 | 124 |
| MTL | 213 | 210 | 113 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Slap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 16:11MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:48MTLTomas PlekanecUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 18:01MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 1:51EDMBenoit PouliotSHAssists: Teddy Purcell, Brandon Davidson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 9:59MTLTom GilbertAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:24EDMEric Gryba: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 8:14MTLLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:21MTLAlexei Emelin: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:45EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:25MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:25MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – McDavid12:46
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl9:28
xG 0.56–0.26 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Pakarinen8:02
xG 0.13–0.41 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Yakupov12:02
xG 0.02–0.56 (3%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson13:44
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gryba – Nurse2:35
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fayne11:43
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:41
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Andrighetto10:01
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise12:39
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn8:31
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Barberio13:10
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry14:52
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban14:56
xG 0.55–0.94 (37%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).