Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 124 | 08 | 139 |
| STL | 09 | 38 | 17 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:47STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:19STLJori LehteraPPGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–2
- P2 16:51STLPaul StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 18:14MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P3 2:38STLTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Jori Lehtera · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:08STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:44MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:20STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:15MINMikko Koivu: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:46MINJarret Stoll: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:46STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:46STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:31STLRobby Fabbri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:14STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:54MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:41MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:40STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:52STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:47MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter8:59
xG 1.04–0.41 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Carter – Fontaine – Graovac8:45
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Porter – Haula7:02
xG 0.02–0.17 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle11:38
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba6:57
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Prosser3:39
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba5:52
xG 0.09–0.03 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Lehtera – Fabbri6:52
xG 0.38–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Steen – Backes9:37
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Tarasenko9:29
xG 0.58–0.69 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Paajarvi – Jaskin6:49
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Edmundson10:23
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:21
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko10:28
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).