Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 217 | 111 | 439 |
| COL | 17 | 112 | 015 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40COLMikhail GrigorenkoPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 18:07WPGAndrew LaddUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:54WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 10:37WPGDrew StaffordPPGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 14:12COLMatt DucheneAssists: Andrew Bodnarchuk, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 9:17WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (20)
- P1 2:46COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:46WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:31WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:38COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37COLAndreas Martinsen: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 10:45WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:15WPGDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:15WPGDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:15COLNick Holden: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:30WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:30COLTyson Barrie: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:30WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:30COLNick Holden: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:30WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:30WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26COLBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26WPGMark Scheifele: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:26COLBlake Comeau: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Lowry – Armia11:43
xG 0.64–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele10:11
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers12:37
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Copp6:17
xG 0.35–0.84 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Chiarot15:43
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 24–14goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:03
xG 0.97–0.52 (65%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba13:38
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Grigorenko – MacKinnon13:01
xG 1.09–0.49 (69%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Iginla – Tanguay – Wagner3:30
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Wagner – Martinsen2:16
xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Martinsen4:41
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBodnarchuk – Bigras11:21
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Bigras2:52
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Holden3:29
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).