Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 19 | 314 | 430 |
| VAN | 05 | 018 | 112 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:25CGYMichael FrolikAssists: TJ Brodie, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 15:07CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 17:45CGYMikael BacklundENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–0
- P3 18:26VANEmerson EtemAssists: Linden Vey, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 19:24CGYSam BennettENAssists: Michael Frolik, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:21VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:26VANLuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:26CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:35CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:01VANRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Bollig7:54
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan11:52
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Ferland – Jooris9:32
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett10:36
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie5:01
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Engelland – Smid13:33
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Russell – Hamilton11:51
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Vey – Etem11:41
xG 0.59–0.39 (61%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen15:13
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Dorsett – Sutter – Virtanen9:12
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat8:35
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Sbisa13:24
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev17:22
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 24–13goals 1–2
- Bartkowski – Hutton14:19
xG 0.31–0.61 (33%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).