Sun, Feb 7, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 010 | 012 | 01 | 0 | 135 |
| MTL | 014 | 110 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 8:11MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 2. CAR Riley Nash stopped
- 3. MTL Brian Flynn stopped
- 4. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 6. CAR Victor Rask stopped
- 7. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 8. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 9. MTL Sven Andrighetto scored
- 10. CAR Eric Staal stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:11MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P2 5:06MTLDale Weise: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:11CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:09CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:32
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm11:46
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Gerbe – Nash5:29
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:41
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Slavin15:17
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Jordan – Hanifin12:45
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk18:34
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise12:01
xG 0.64–0.07 (90%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:22
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Eller – Andrighetto12:37
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:51
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:46
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Subban – Barberio2:18
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry10:59
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).