Mon, Feb 8, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 010 | 09 | 132 |
| OTT | 210 | 211 | 18 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23OTTZack SmithAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:51OTTShane PrinceGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 17:25TBLJT BrownAssists: Braydon Coburn, Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 4:41OTTMark StonePPAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 10:46OTTMark StoneAssists: Cody Ceci, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 15:22OTTJean-Gabriel PageauENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:46OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:37TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P1 19:21TBLRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:15TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:45TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:02TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:02OTTMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:11TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:11OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:29TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01OTTAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:51TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Kucherov7:14
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov8:39
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown5:47
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov4:14
xG 0.26–0.00 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Hedman – Nesterov2:34
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Nesterov5:00
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Dzingel – Lazar6:51
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Prince – Zibanejad7:31
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman11:30
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Smith – Stone – Pageau7:21
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Ceci8:33
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:51
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Wiercioch – Wideman9:47
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).