Tue, Feb 9, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Los Angeles Kings 9, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 217 | 421 | 319 | 957 |
| BOS | 113 | 013 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Matt Beleskey, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 18:21LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:44LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:42LAKAndy AndreoffGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 12:09LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Marian Gaborik · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 12:42LAKDwight KingAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–1
- P2 18:56LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Jake Muzzin, Kyle Clifford · Backhand, 0.15 xG6–1
- P3 3:41LAKMilan LucicAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.18 xG7–1
- P3 4:44BOSTyler RandellAssists: Kevan Miller, Max Talbot · Snap, 0.06 xG7–2
- P3 13:50LAKLuke SchennPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.04 xG8–2
- P3 16:57LAKDustin BrownAssists: Milan Lucic, Luke Schenn · Backhand, 0.10 xG9–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:08BOSTyler Randell: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:08LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:26LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:41BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:32LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 10:36BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:58LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:34LAKDwight King: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:25BOSJimmy Hayes: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli10:40
xG 0.92–0.31 (74%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff6:33
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Lucic13:34
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gaborik – Lewis7:53
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez10:53
xG 1.07–0.54 (66%)attempts 26–14goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Schenn9:27
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Doughty – McNabb17:46
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:07
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Talbot – Ferraro – Randell9:43
xG 0.35–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner9:17
xG 0.22–0.75 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak14:01
xG 0.48–1.06 (31%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Morrow9:10
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Morrow6:26
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug9:10
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).