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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Florida Panthers 7, Buffalo Sabres 4

Away

Florida Panthers

7

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA311312112735
BUF09212213434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:40FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:45FLABrian CampbellAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:35FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
  4. P2 0:22FLAAlexander PetrovicAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
  5. P2 1:09BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.33 xG4–1
  6. P2 5:04BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–2
  7. P2 7:39FLABrandon PirriGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Quinton Howden · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–2
  8. P2 17:53FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–2
  9. P3 10:14BUFEvander KaneAssists: Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
  10. P3 17:17BUFMike WeberAssists: David Legwand, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–4
  11. P3 18:03FLAReilly SmithENAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.56 xG7–4
Penalties (17)
  1. P2 0:34FLABrent Regner: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 1:49FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:49BUFEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 1:49BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 1:49FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 3:23FLAGarrett Wilson: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 9:53BUFEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 9:53FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 9:53FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 7:49FLABrent Regner: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 12:03FLAAlexander Petrovic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P3 12:03BUFEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 12:03FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 12:03BUFEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 12:03FLAAlexander Petrovic: Game misconduct10 min
  16. P3 12:03BUFEvander Kane: Game misconduct10 min
  17. P3 12:23BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
47% to win54% to win
← FLA attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against O'Reilly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLABUF
35Shots on goal34
2.6Expected goals3.1
46Shot attempts58
37Faceoffs won30
1Power plays4
37Penalty minutes31
15Hits16
13Blocked shots7
5Giveaways5
0Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck9:46

    xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1

  2. Thornton – MacKenzie – Wilson9:21

    xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  3. Pirri – Howden – Shaw9:33

    xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0

  4. Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau13:12

    xG 0.63–0.90 (41%)attempts 14–15goals 3–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKulikov – Ekblad15:20

    xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0

  2. Campbell – Kampfer3:56

    xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0

  3. Campbell – Petrovic13:14

    xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 3–0

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestMoulson – Foligno – Eichel5:08

    xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  2. Gionta – Kane – Reinhart5:46

    xG 0.17–0.09 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

  3. McGinn – O'Reilly – Eichel3:02

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  4. McGinn – O'Reilly – Deslauriers5:53

    xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 6–7goals 0–3

Defence pairs

  1. bestGorges – Ristolainen15:21

    xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 0–3

  2. Franson – Weber9:35

    xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1

  3. Bogosian – Pysyk13:30

    xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.1 xGFLA 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #222 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.81 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).