Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 017 | 115 | 07 | 2 | 346 |
| CBJ | 212 | 09 | 05 | 05 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56NYIRyan StromeAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 7:45CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Dalton Prout · Snap, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 11:26CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 3:05NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. CBJ Brandon Dubinsky stopped
- 4. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 5. CBJ Alexander Wennberg scored
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 7. CBJ Boone Jenner stopped
- 8. NYI Cal Clutterbuck scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:13CBJDalton Prout: Holding2 min
- P2 3:31NYIFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:34CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Tavares – Strome15:52
xG 1.82–0.81 (69%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson12:50
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin13:21
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:38
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan19:39
xG 1.61–1.34 (55%)attempts 23–26goals 0–1
- Strait – Hickey14:25
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy18:47
xG 0.99–0.97 (50%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Campbell – Bourque – Foligno7:49
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg14:04
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner13:41
xG 1.16–1.27 (48%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Rychel12:25
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout14:32
xG 1.06–0.19 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Goloubef17:20
xG 0.46–0.74 (38%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
- Murray – Jones21:04
xG 0.61–2.57 (19%)attempts 13–34goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).