Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 111 | 116 | 239 |
| MTL | 19 | 212 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:40TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:40MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Mark Barberio · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 19:52MTLDevante Smith-PellyGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 6:17MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 9:03TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:51TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51MTLNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:06MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:58MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:01TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:06MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 16:45TBLMatt Carle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Brown10:12
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 19–5goals 2–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Palat3:54
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov6:28
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov5:19
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman3:11
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Nesterov10:47
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Hedman – Sustr12:37
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:22
xG 1.42–0.47 (75%)attempts 17–17goals 3–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Smith-Pelly7:04
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Andrighetto4:48
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Andrighetto2:56
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Beaulieu5:11
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban14:14
xG 1.18–0.89 (57%)attempts 16–26goals 1–2
- Subban – Barberio2:35
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).