Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 111 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 233 |
| STL | 07 | 17 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:15WPGBryan LittleAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 2:27STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Jori Lehtera, Robby Fabbri · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 5. STL Jori Lehtera stopped
- 6. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 7. STL Troy Brouwer stopped
- 8. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:30WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:59STLRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:07STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:45WPGBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
- P2 17:42STLRobert Bortuzzo: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:07WPGAnthony Peluso: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:36STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Ehlers10:15
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Ladd – Lowry – Armia11:34
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Perreault – Burmistrov – Scheifele11:23
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp3:23
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Chiarot12:59
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:29
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Myers – Trouba2:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Lehtera – Fabbri7:26
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Paajarvi4:34
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Tarasenko12:03
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Upshall – Steen – Backes8:21
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson10:28
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk16:34
xG 0.43–0.87 (33%)attempts 10–24goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko14:15
xG 0.20–0.81 (20%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).