Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 5, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 16 | 311 | 523 |
| NSH | 014 | 17 | 25 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 4:55WSHTom WilsonAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Carlson · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 14:42NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Craig Smith, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 5:00WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 8:03WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
- P3 9:49NSHRoman JosiAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 12:00NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:00WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:41WSHNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P1 4:42NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:23WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:06NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:13WSHMarcus Johansson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:54WSHAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:50WSHMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:41WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:53
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson10:00
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:53
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
- Laich – Richards – Latta5:48
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner17:23
xG 1.19–0.28 (81%)attempts 22–7goals 2–1
- Chorney – Orlov9:12
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Carlson – Schmidt16:53
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Bass – Salomaki5:08
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:47
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 11–4goals 1–2
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith11:08
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen13:33
xG 0.15–0.92 (14%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm16:13
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Jackman – Bitetto8:25
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi19:55
xG 0.34–1.15 (23%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).