Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 213 | 04 | 13 | 430 |
| MIN | 213 | 09 | 117 | 01 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48MINErik HaulaAssists: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 9:47DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 12:09MINJustin FontaineAssists: Erik Haula, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 4:01DALJason DemersAssists: Mattias Janmark, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 10:45DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 1:16MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–3
- OT 2:39DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:07DALPatrik Nemeth: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 19:36MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:47DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:01MINMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:51DALPatrik Nemeth: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Janmark – Nichushkin9:45
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin8:13
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin9:50
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Moen – Fiddler – Faksa7:00
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg18:29
xG 0.92–0.76 (55%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Benn – Nemeth10:54
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers12:30
xG 0.22–0.55 (29%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter12:58
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Haula – Fontaine10:19
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle14:27
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carter – Zucker6:14
xG 0.06–0.29 (16%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Folin16:01
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Suter – Scandella2:08
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser3:49
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).