Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 213 | 17 | 328 |
| COL | 010 | 19 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:26COLFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:43VANMatt BartkowskiAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:22VANSven BaertschiGWGAssists: Ben Hutton, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 4:30VANBo HorvatAssists: Luca Sbisa, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:24VANSven Baertschi: Elbowing2 min
- P1 17:47VANBo Horvat: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:20VANLuca Sbisa: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:39COLNick Holden: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32VANSven Baertschi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen9:50
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen8:51
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Dorsett – Sutter2:56
xG 0.13–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – Vey – Etem9:32
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hutton3:45
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev6:57
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa9:02
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Iginla – Wagner – Martinsen2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McLeod – Wagner – Martinsen4:44
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – McLeod3:03
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell6:38
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras9:19
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie16:33
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Johnson16:44
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).