Wed, Feb 10, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 08 | 15 | 123 |
| DET | 113 | 08 | 28 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 2:01DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 17:36OTTZack SmithPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 18:49DETDarren HelmENAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:27OTTAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:39DETAlexey Marchenko: Interference2 min
- P2 13:04DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:22DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:36OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P3 4:30DETTomas Jurco: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:03DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 11:42DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:39DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau9:43
xG 0.89–0.36 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Prince – Zibanejad4:14
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Dzingel – Lazar4:00
xG 0.04–0.32 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman9:38
xG 0.05–0.60 (8%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Ceci11:56
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson13:11
xG 0.50–0.77 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Wideman8:42
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader9:02
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening5:29
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Nyquist4:48
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Tatar – Larkin9:05
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Smith3:20
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser10:24
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko6:14
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).