Thu, Feb 11, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 010 | 118 | 142 |
| PHI | 06 | 414 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:23PHIR.J. UmbergerAssists: Sam Gagner, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:11PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 8:33PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 15:57PHIMichael RafflAssists: Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 10:04BUFJamie McGinnAssists: Jake McCabe, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 10:33PHINick CousinsUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:46BUFZach Bogosian: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:06PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P1 16:14PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P1 19:08PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:14BUFRobin Lehner: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:52PHIBrandon Manning: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:04PHIRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:57BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:57PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:57BUFMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:27PHIRadko Gudas: Charging5 min
- P3 16:27BUFJake McCabe: Instigator2 min
- P3 16:27PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:27BUFJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:27BUFJake McCabe: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Bailey – Reinhart5:41
xG 1.11–0.10 (92%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Catenacci3:50
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Deslauriers2:51
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Eichel3:18
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen12:15
xG 1.70–0.31 (85%)attempts 25–10goals 0–2
- Pysyk – McCabe3:57
xG 0.47–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Franson – Bogosian6:58
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Cousins – Raffl9:35
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 10–13goals 3–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:25
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Umberger – Gagner – Weal8:45
xG 0.36–1.08 (25%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds7:49
xG 0.05–1.45 (3%)attempts 5–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gudas9:46
xG 0.55–0.73 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Streit – Manning2:16
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz8:30
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).