Thu, Feb 11, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 27 | 17 | 427 |
| OTT | 09 | 28 | 112 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Blake Comeau, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:26COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 6:54COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 11:15OTTMark StonePPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 19:52OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:56COLBlake ComeauENGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
- P3 19:34OTTChris NeilAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Curtis Lazar · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:01OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 1:43OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:15COLChris Bigras: Interference2 min
- P2 6:39OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:04COLJohn Mitchell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:59COLJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Tanguay – McLeod – MacKinnon10:51
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:53
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Duchene – Grigorenko10:42
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Wagner – Martinsen8:48
xG 0.08–0.63 (11%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson16:25
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:00
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Bigras3:01
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Dzingel – Lazar10:48
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau12:24
xG 0.37–0.04 (89%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Prince – Zibanejad8:20
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Chiasson5:21
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Borowiecki7:36
xG 0.54–0.07 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci10:40
xG 0.52–0.19 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson4:48
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).