Thu, Feb 11, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 315 | 18 | 433 |
| MIN | 08 | 115 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:14WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:21WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–0
- P2 11:27MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 14:55WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 7:35MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:08WSHJason ChimeraENGWGAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
- P3 19:56MINMikael GranlundAssists: Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:53WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:24MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:05WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P1 13:57WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:54MINChristian Folin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:10MINThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:48WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:23MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:59WSHJustin Williams: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:30MINJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Johansson – Wilson9:18
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Laich – Richards – Latta4:18
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:26
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:04
xG 0.56–0.79 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov9:59
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:22
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Carlson – Schmidt11:54
xG 0.17–0.33 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle12:10
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Vanek – Haula – Fontaine7:03
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carter – Zucker5:59
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter9:24
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba9:12
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Prosser – Reilly3:23
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin4:54
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).