Thu, Feb 11, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 6, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 311 | 014 | 314 | 639 |
| WPG | 218 | 012 | 06 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 3:29WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:34BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Jimmy Hayes · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P1 17:30WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 18:45BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Brett Connolly, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 0:35BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–2
- P3 7:42BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brett Connolly, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–2
- P3 15:12BOSJimmy HayesENAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:33BOSZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:32BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:19BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:19WPGTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:15BOSMax Talbot: Holding2 min
- P2 3:17BOSRyan Spooner: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:55BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:55WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:10WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 13:57BOSPatrice Bergeron: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:57WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:09BOSRyan Spooner: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:04WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:54WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P3 17:30BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly7:18
xG 0.85–0.15 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 3–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak8:11
xG 0.81–0.13 (87%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Hayes – Spooner8:41
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Randell5:24
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Trotman11:57
xG 1.34–0.28 (83%)attempts 19–11goals 3–0
- Seidenberg – Miller2:03
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug8:51
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Burmistrov – Copp4:15
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Lowry – Armia9:41
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele10:50
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers10:16
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba2:39
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Trouba2:56
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:58
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).