Thu, Feb 11, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 6, San Jose Sharks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 49 | 04 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 622 |
| SJS | 112 | 211 | 216 | 03 | 1 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12CGYSam BennettUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 5:18CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 8:45SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 12:46CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P1 13:26CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Sam Bennett, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 0:48SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 11:17SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.27 xG4–3
- P3 2:46SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- P3 5:55SJSDylan DeMeloPPAssists: Joel Ward, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 8:08CGYKris RussellPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 2. CGY Joe Colborne scored
- 3. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
- 4. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 5. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 6. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 7. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 8. CGY Jiri Hudler scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:48SJSLogan Couture: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 15:18SJSJustin Braun: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:08CGYMicheal Ferland: Interference2 min
- P1 19:20CGYTJ Brodie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:59CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59CGYSam Bennett: Bench2 min
- P2 19:02SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:13CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:22SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:35SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:20CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:00CGYSam Bennett: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:00CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:37
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett9:17
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Colborne – Ferland – Granlund6:32
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma3:41
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Brodie2:14
xG 0.06–0.03 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie13:56
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Russell – Hamilton10:20
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Wingels – Donskoi7:39
xG 0.73–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Zubrus – Tierney – Karlsson4:55
xG 0.11–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto7:25
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Marleau – Ward – Karlsson2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns11:04
xG 1.09–0.16 (87%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Tennyson7:37
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:08
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).