Fri, Feb 12, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Los Angeles Kings 5, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 110 | 111 | 12 | 534 |
| NYR | 111 | 210 | 14 | 03 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:26LAKMarian GaborikPPAssists: Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 13:00NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:44NYRDerek StepanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 9:21NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 15:46LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Milan Lucic, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 15:14NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:30LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–4
- OT 3:10LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:13NYRMarc Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12NYRDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:30LAKAlec Martinez: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson11:19
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- King – Nolan – Shore4:35
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gaborik – Lewis2:44
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Lucic16:56
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb19:21
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Doughty3:08
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gravel9:38
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Zuccarello – Miller2:09
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes9:23
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:47
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
- Moore – Paille – Glass8:20
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Yandle2:03
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal17:57
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 9–22goals 0–2
- Yandle – Girardi17:50
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).