Fri, Feb 12, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 14 | 07 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 321 |
| DET | 013 | 114 | 114 | 04 | 1 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27COLMatt DucheneAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 4:09DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 5:30COLBlake ComeauAssists: Tyson Barrie, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 9:51DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 2. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 3. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. DET Brad Richards stopped
- 6. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 7. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 8. COL Blake Comeau scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:36COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:42DETRiley Sheahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:51COLChris Bigras: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:36COLCarl Soderberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:03COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:47DETDylan Larkin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:53COLJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:28DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Wagner – Martinsen6:20
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Tanguay – McLeod – MacKinnon10:47
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – MacKinnon2:46
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog11:41
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie12:46
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 8–21goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:26
xG 0.18–0.24 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Holden2:53
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Sheahan – Glendening8:45
xG 0.82–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Tatar – Larkin9:54
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader12:53
xG 0.96–0.69 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Jurco – Athanasiou5:59
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser20:06
xG 1.33–0.60 (69%)attempts 24–9goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Marchenko11:11
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1
- Green – Smith10:04
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).