Fri, Feb 12, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 5, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 313 | 19 | 16 | 528 |
| FLA | 18 | 111 | 113 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05FLADerek MacKenzieAssists: Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 12:16STLDavid BackesAssists: Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:57STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
- P1 19:41STLRobby FabbriPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 8:00STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P2 10:44FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 10:47FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Brian Campbell, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 12:17STLAlexander SteenAssists: David Backes, Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:41FLAVincent Trocheck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:36STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:34FLABrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:34STLTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:21STLRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:51
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri8:31
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:31
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Berglund12:57
xG 0.54–0.84 (39%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Shattenkirk16:58
xG 1.02–0.80 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson11:58
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko14:42
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Wilson10:11
xG 0.72–0.19 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck12:39
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pirri – Howden – Shaw8:53
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau9:39
xG 0.40–1.00 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Regner9:56
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Petrovic16:01
xG 0.75–0.66 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Kampfer – Kulikov2:56
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).