Sat, Feb 13, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Boston Bruins 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 15 | 25 | 419 |
| MIN | 06 | 114 | 113 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 11:13MINThomas VanekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:48BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 6:58BOSLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Jimmy Hayes · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 18:18BOSZdeno CharaENAssists: Zach Trotman · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–1
- P3 19:23MINMike ReillyAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:35BOSZach Trotman: Holding2 min
- P1 2:38MINMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P1 4:57BOSZac Rinaldo: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:21MINZach Parise: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:01BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:28BOSJimmy Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:01MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:15BOSKevan Miller: Holding2 min
- P3 2:52MINThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:47MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Spooner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Hayes – Kemppainen5:35
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Hayes – Spooner2:20
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Randell4:32
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Connolly – Kemppainen2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Morrow7:28
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Miller2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Trotman12:23
xG 0.23–0.28 (44%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Haula7:06
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine2:14
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle11:47
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – Granlund – Niederreiter6:59
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba10:11
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin8:03
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser3:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).