Sat, Feb 13, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 015 | 214 | 235 |
| CBJ | 114 | 117 | 29 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:29CBJBoone JennerAssists: Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 14:47CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 2:19OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 14:25CBJBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 15:43OTTCody CeciAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:16CBJBoone JennerENUnassisted · Snap, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:39CBJKerby Rychel: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:15OTTKyle Turris: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:46CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:41CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:51OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:51CBJMatt Calvert: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:51OTTAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:51CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:47CBJBoone Jenner: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:47OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:24OTTMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Chiasson4:34
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad2:07
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Prince – Zibanejad2:19
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Dzingel – Lazar9:53
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:32
xG 1.08–0.72 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Ceci10:29
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wideman2:20
xG 0.11–0.33 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Calvert – Karlsson7:21
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel6:45
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg11:08
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:37
xG 1.17–1.45 (45%)attempts 16–24goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones14:15
xG 1.59–0.61 (72%)attempts 27–16goals 2–1
- Tyutin – Prout14:03
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard16:19
xG 0.71–1.27 (36%)attempts 15–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).