Sat, Feb 13, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 06 | 312 | 323 |
| DAL | 08 | 417 | 010 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:55DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:48DALJamie BennAssists: Patrick Eaves, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 14:01DALTyler SeguinAssists: Patrik Nemeth · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 19:23DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–4
- P3 4:03WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 7:20WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Nate Schmidt, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 13:54WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:55WSHAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:55DALCody Eakin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:20WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:50DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:45WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P3 11:27DALCody Eakin: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Williams – Kuznetsov2:17
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:41
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Laich – Richards – Galiev4:30
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:41
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Schmidt16:55
xG 0.62–0.77 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Chorney – Orlov8:51
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
- Niskanen – Alzner17:18
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Faksa6:10
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Eakin8:47
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin12:19
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Hemsky – Janmark – Nichushkin9:30
xG 0.70–0.93 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:20
xG 0.83–0.44 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Benn – Nemeth10:34
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Oduya – Demers14:19
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).