Sun, Feb 14, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 110 | 17 | 221 |
| TBL | 012 | 011 | 115 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:36STLRobby FabbriAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 17:41STLPatrik BerglundGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 19:08TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:42TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:42STLRobby Fabbri: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:15STLScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:33TBLBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:46TBLAnton Stralman: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:44STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:21TBLErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:30STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Stastny – Fabbri7:50
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:19
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Berglund10:07
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:38
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson10:34
xG 0.29–0.21 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko14:25
xG 0.75–0.70 (52%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk16:22
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Condra – Paquette8:18
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown9:25
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov2:41
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov5:28
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Stralman2:17
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Hedman2:05
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).