Mon, Feb 15, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 011 | 110 | 129 |
| NYI | 08 | 316 | 18 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:24NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Strome, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 14:57NYIJosh BaileyPPGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.45 xG0–2
- P2 16:03NYIMarek ZidlickyAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 9:31DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 12:14NYIRyan StromeAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:41NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:53DETDarren Helm: Holding2 min
- P2 13:19DETPavel Datsyuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:24NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:01NYIThomas Hickey: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:19NYIBrock Nelson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 6:52DETJustin Abdelkader: Illegal equipment2 min
- P3 13:17DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Tatar – Larkin8:43
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Nyquist3:00
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader9:43
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening6:04
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith10:38
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:16
xG 0.95–0.23 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Ouellet9:22
xG 1.14–0.57 (67%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Grabovski – Tavares – Strome10:16
xG 0.68–0.79 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin9:38
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:11
xG 0.34–0.81 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson7:56
xG 0.12–0.66 (16%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey9:08
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Hamonic2:49
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic3:13
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).