Mon, Feb 15, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 012 | 17 | 04 | 1 | 132 |
| FLA | 17 | 06 | 012 | 03 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30FLANick BjugstadAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 16:41PITChris KunitzUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 3. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 4. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 5. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
- 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 7. FLA Reilly Smith stopped
- 8. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
- 9. FLA Jussi Jokinen scored
- 10. PIT Matt Cullen stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:17FLASteven Kampfer: Holding2 min
- P1 17:10PITMatt Cullen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:03FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 1:47PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P3 12:25PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist14:55
xG 0.97–0.33 (74%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist8:06
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Porter – Wilson – Sheary5:09
xG 0.25–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kessel – Hagelin11:29
xG 0.13–0.35 (26%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta18:35
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Pouliot9:48
xG 0.49–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin15:20
xG 0.14–0.67 (18%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:36
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Wilson – McKegg6:21
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Jagr – Smith – Trocheck14:32
xG 0.27–0.74 (26%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – McFarland – Shaw7:20
xG 0.04–0.58 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Petrovic11:54
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic2:37
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic5:17
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).