Mon, Feb 15, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 015 | 211 | 237 |
| CHI | 216 | 15 | 411 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33CHIBrandon MashinterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:39CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–2
- P2 1:55CHIBrent SeabrookPPGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 2:07CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 4:51CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 8:39CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.12 xG0–6
- P3 10:20CHIViktor SvedbergAssists: Jonathan Toews, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.08 xG0–7
- P3 11:06TORMark ArcobelloAssists: PA Parenteau, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–7
- P3 15:08TORPA ParenteauPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:41TORColin Greening: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:23TORRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:45CHIMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:34TORColin Greening: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:28CHIArtemi Panarin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:26TORMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:18TORMartin Marincin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 7:18TORByron Froese: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:40CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Greening – Arcobello10:23
xG 0.51–0.39 (56%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Boyes – Clune – Froese6:48
xG 0.11–0.14 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Winnik – Spaling – Holland9:31
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri9:46
xG 0.21–0.34 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin3:24
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick3:09
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Corrado3:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Danault – Teravainen9:44
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:17
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Mashinter – Hinostroza – Rasmussen7:04
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Shaw9:16
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk11:37
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson9:48
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).