Mon, Feb 15, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 217 | 26 | 111 | 534 |
| VAN | 14 | 18 | 014 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:29VANChris TanevPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Linden Vey · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:46MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 2:12MINJustin FontaineGWGAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:17VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ben Hutton · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 13:21MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 16:48MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikael Granlund, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:25VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:10VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:33MINRyan Carter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:46MINJarret Stoll: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:31VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Zucker – Granlund8:50
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle10:58
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter7:35
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine9:56
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Folin9:04
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba2:48
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:53
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Burrows – Dorsett – McCann4:15
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Vey – Friesen6:06
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen11:10
xG 0.21–0.37 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Dorsett – Vey3:03
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Hutton15:11
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa14:25
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski12:38
xG 0.11–1.33 (8%)attempts 12–14goals 0–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).