Tue, Feb 16, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 6, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 110 | 48 | 626 |
| NJD | 18 | 06 | 210 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:01NJDTyler KennedyPPAssists: John Moore, Reid Boucher · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:23PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:55PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 9:24NJDJordin TootooAssists: Seth Helgeson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 12:22PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 13:12PHINick CousinsGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Ryan White · Snap, 0.40 xG4–2
- P3 17:12PHIJakub VoracekAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 17:44NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: David Schlemko · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 18:08PHIRyan WhiteENAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.55 xG6–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:18PHINick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P1 5:37NJDTyler Kennedy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:10PHIRadko Gudas: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P1 12:25PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:25NJDJoseph Blandisi: Embellishment2 min
- P1 17:50PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:30NJDAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:30PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:22PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:18PHIRyan White: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:42NJDKyle Palmieri: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:09PHINick Cousins: Holding2 min
- P3 11:33NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:55NJDBobby Farnham: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:55NJDBobby Farnham: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Read – Raffl7:29
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn11:03
xG 0.28–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare6:39
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Voracek – Cousins7:42
xG 0.07–0.10 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Medvedev3:48
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Streit – Medvedev6:32
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz7:08
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Blandisi2:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Henrique – Blandisi4:55
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Boucher6:38
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin3:17
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Larsson13:58
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Moore8:39
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Helgeson – Severson9:15
xG 0.15–0.89 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).