Tue, Feb 16, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 1, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 019 | 09 | 140 |
| WSH | 09 | 111 | 212 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43LAKAnze KopitarSHAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 19:11WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 17:58WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:51WSHJason ChimeraENAssists: Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:53LAKTrevor Lewis: Holding2 min
- P1 8:54WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P1 11:01LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:22WSHAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P1 16:01LAKJordan Nolan: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:00WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:00LAKLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:00WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:53LAKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:24LAKTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Lucic11:26
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore6:17
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – Pearson6:59
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Carter – King – Toffoli8:56
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Schenn11:35
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty18:01
xG 0.58–0.51 (54%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- McNabb – Gravel9:33
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Richards – Latta5:14
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:40
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:27
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson9:52
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt12:08
xG 0.89–0.50 (64%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Orpik – Orlov11:55
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:42
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).