Tue, Feb 16, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 04 | 113 | 121 |
| CAR | 19 | 113 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 10:20CARRiley NashPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.40 xG0–2
- P3 6:52WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:57CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:37WPGDrew Stafford: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:37CARVictor Rask: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:21CARKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:25WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:59CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:34WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Armia – Ehlers4:35
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele5:36
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Lowry2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Lowry – Armia5:14
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Chiarot9:37
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba3:42
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:16
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Terry – Nash4:34
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm7:29
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom7:16
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- McClement – Nestrasil – Nordstrom2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Pesce15:31
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Jordan – Hanifin9:41
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Slavin13:42
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).