Tue, Feb 16, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Boston Bruins 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 08 | 07 | 11 | 230 |
| CBJ | 19 | 010 | 09 | 01 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54CBJAlexander WennbergUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 14:28BOSPatrice BergeronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 0:33BOSLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:29CBJRyan Murray: Holding2 min
- P1 9:54BOSZdeno Chara: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 11:07CBJSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 6:51CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P2 9:31BOSTyler Randell: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:56BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:06CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:00BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Hayes – Spooner9:09
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly11:48
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak7:49
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak2:24
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller11:27
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug3:17
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid3:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Calvert – Karlsson10:42
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg10:45
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:32
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel5:24
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones17:01
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Prout13:07
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard13:59
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).