Tue, Feb 16, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 113 | 310 | 531 |
| EDM | 09 | 211 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:08ANADavid PerronPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P2 2:16EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:54ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:29EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 5:35ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:29ANAAndrew CoglianoENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
- P3 18:53EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 19:47ANACorey PerryENAssists: Frederik Andersen · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:57ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P1 9:47EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:37EDMBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:39ANAMike Santorelli: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55EDMBenoit Pouliot: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:57EDMBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:58ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:55ANAKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Santorelli – Perron7:34
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Rakell – Ritchie8:49
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:24
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Thompson – Maroon – Garbutt5:31
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Vatanen13:26
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm12:39
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler15:30
xG 0.35–0.98 (26%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Pakarinen – Yakupov2:20
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – McDavid4:16
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Pakarinen3:36
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Yakupov – McDavid2:47
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Nurse6:16
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Schultz13:16
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fayne – Nurse10:20
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).