Wed, Feb 17, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Chicago Blackhawks 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 17 | 37 | 520 |
| NYR | 010 | 19 | 215 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30CHIAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:05CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 13:45NYRKevin HayesAssists: Oscar Lindberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 0:24NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:17NYRDan BoylePPAssists: Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 9:53CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 17:00CHIArtemi PanarinPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 18:49CHIArtemi PanarinENAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:01NYRJesper Fast: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:17NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:34CHIVinnie Hinostroza: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 8:11NYRViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:30NYRKeith Yandle: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Danault – Teravainen11:46
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Shaw11:25
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Mashinter – Hinostroza – Rasmussen5:39
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:45
xG 0.12–0.66 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson16:16
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Keith2:44
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Gustafsson10:04
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:58
xG 0.95–0.41 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Fast – Miller13:46
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes8:48
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Moore – Paille – Glass5:39
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:01
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Klein – McDonagh3:07
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle6:52
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).