Wed, Feb 17, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 113 | 010 | 234 |
| COL | 07 | 214 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:40MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:31COLErik JohnsonSHAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:38MTLLars EllerAssists: Max Pacioretty, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 16:46COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 17:57COLJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:42MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 13:20COLJohn Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:41COLAndrew Bodnarchuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:08MTLLucas Lessio: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:51COLJarome Iginla: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:37MTLLars Eller: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:42COLAndreas Martinsen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Smith-Pelly – Lessio9:18
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eller – Andrighetto9:07
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:02
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Byron – Weise – de la Rose12:06
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu16:56
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn10:08
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban17:25
xG 0.62–0.83 (43%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Skille – MacKinnon3:49
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon8:25
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog3:30
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Martinsen3:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson17:12
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras11:47
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie15:15
xG 0.34–0.65 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).