Thu, Feb 18, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 112 | 116 | 338 |
| PIT | 214 | 214 | 211 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56PITBen LovejoyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 13:40DETTomas JurcoAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 16:47PITMatt CullenAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 2:19DETDylan LarkinAssists: Luke Glendening, Kyle Quincey · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 2:43PITPhil KesselAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 16:46PITScott WilsonGWGAssists: Conor Sheary, Derrick Pouliot · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 6:26PITPhil KesselAssists: Olli Maatta, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 11:13DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 19:12PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–6
Penalties (2)
- P1 18:44DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:37PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader12:26
xG 1.18–0.63 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening6:11
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Helm – Glendening – Larkin7:27
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Tatar – Sheahan6:10
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith15:50
xG 1.30–1.06 (55%)attempts 24–17goals 2–2
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:17
xG 0.84–0.64 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Marchenko – Ouellet15:29
xG 0.30–0.69 (31%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Wilson – Sheary7:55
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel14:31
xG 0.73–0.56 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist9:15
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Hagelin12:35
xG 0.63–1.05 (38%)attempts 10–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Pouliot12:46
xG 0.96–0.42 (70%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Letang – Maatta19:18
xG 0.77–0.68 (53%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
- Daley – Dumoulin15:57
xG 0.77–0.92 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).