Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 013 | 113 | 01 | 135 |
| STL | 116 | 07 | 07 | 12 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:32STLRobby FabbriPPAssists: Jori Lehtera, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 3:25LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 1:40STLJaden SchwartzGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:42LAKJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:19LAKDwight King: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:49LAKAndy Andreoff: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:21STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P2 9:49LAKJordan Nolan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:40STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:13LAKMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:04STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:04LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:04STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:03STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:47LAKLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:53LAKJake Muzzin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:54STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli7:21
xG 0.56–0.07 (88%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff2:32
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – Pearson2:49
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – King2:02
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Muzzin4:55
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb9:30
xG 0.54–0.35 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty9:04
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves4:49
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:19
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Berglund10:48
xG 0.20–0.39 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri7:38
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko11:20
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson9:42
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk14:27
xG 0.33–0.63 (34%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).