Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 27 | 110 | 527 |
| EDM | 213 | 010 | 010 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 9:58EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 13:16MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 17:19EDMNail YakupovUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 4:48MINThomas VanekGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 15:37MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 19:56MINCharlie CoyleENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:49EDMLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:29EDMJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:53MINRyan Suter: Broken stick2 min
- P2 5:09EDMJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P2 8:24MINMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine4:08
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter4:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (3%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Zucker – Granlund4:54
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle7:46
xG 0.02–0.23 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Prosser – Dumba2:45
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Prosser – Folin3:22
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–2
- Suter – Spurgeon10:32
xG 0.03–0.34 (8%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl9:53
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – McDavid6:41
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Yakupov3:51
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Lander – Pakarinen3:59
xG 0.07–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Schultz8:37
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Davidson – Clendening9:06
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Fayne – Nurse7:46
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).