Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 213 | 310 | 533 |
| VAN | 09 | 06 | 26 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:03ANARickard RakellAssists: Sami Vatanen, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 10:25ANASami VatanenPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 4:14ANARyan GetzlafGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 4:41ANAJosh MansonAssists: Rickard Rakell, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 6:18VANJannik HansenAssists: Daniel Sedin · Deflected, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 11:58VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 17:29ANAKevin BieksaENAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:39VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:38ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:10VANAdam Cracknell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:35ANARyan Kesler: Interference2 min
- P2 17:16ANADavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:40VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:40ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:16ANADavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:24VANAdam Cracknell: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Rakell – Ritchie10:48
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Santorelli – Perron9:00
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Maroon – Garbutt7:39
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:10
xG 0.03–0.45 (6%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:20
xG 0.73–0.44 (63%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Fowler13:35
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Despres – Vatanen12:34
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen9:12
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Burrows – Cracknell – Virtanen3:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dorsett – Virtanen4:11
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Dorsett – Horvat4:19
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Bartkowski8:27
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hutton14:25
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa10:11
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).