Fri, Feb 19, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 04 | 112 | 224 |
| CAR | 18 | 119 | 310 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03CARChris TerryAssists: Noah Hanifin, Riley Nash · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:07SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joel Ward, Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:25CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Jordan Staal, Brett Pesce · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 0:39CARJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 10:38SJSTomas HertlAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 15:32CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Rask, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 17:35CARJordan StaalENAssists: Andrej Nestrasil · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:02CAREric Staal: Embellishment2 min
- P2 1:02SJSMelker Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:22SJSTomas Hertl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:40SJSMike Brown: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:40SJSMike Brown: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Hertl2:49
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto10:24
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Brown – Tierney7:49
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Couture – Donskoi – Karlsson6:40
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – DeMelo5:26
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Martin – DeMelo2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Tennyson5:45
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Terry – Nash10:07
xG 0.78–0.19 (80%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm10:02
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom11:41
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe10:53
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Slavin2:00
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Slavin16:51
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Jordan – Hanifin16:49
xG 0.78–0.88 (47%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).