Fri, Feb 19, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 212 | 014 | 29 | 435 |
| CBJ | 014 | 09 | 015 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:55BUFJamie McGinnPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.50 xG1–0
- P1 18:38BUFDavid LegwandSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 7:16BUFJamie McGinnAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 9:53BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.42 xG4–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:07BUFZemgus Girgensons: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 8:29CBJSeth Jones: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:49CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:03BUFMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
- P2 6:34CBJJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:24BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:55CBJScott Hartnell: Boarding5 min
- P2 17:26BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 18:08BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking5 min
- P3 11:30CBJBoone Jenner: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:30CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30BUFRobin Lehner: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30BUFRobin Lehner: Goalie leave crease2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson6:47
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart8:02
xG 0.91–0.72 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- McGinn – Girgensons – Eichel6:06
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Deslauriers5:15
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Pysyk2:15
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen11:22
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Franson – Pysyk8:41
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:47
xG 1.28–0.15 (90%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel4:10
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Karlsson5:09
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Calvert – Rychel2:32
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard12:09
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones10:59
xG 1.59–1.34 (54%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Prout11:13
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).