Fri, Feb 19, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 114 | 012 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 237 |
| MTL | 110 | 011 | 17 | 03 | 2 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56MTLDale WeiseAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:06PHINick CousinsAssists: R.J. Umberger, Evgeny Medvedev · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 3:15PHIMichael RafflAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Scott Laughton · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 8:35MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 2. PHI Nick Cousins scored
- 3. MTL Sven Andrighetto stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
- 6. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 7. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 8. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 9. MTL Paul Byron scored
- 10. PHI Brayden Schenn stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:44PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:32MTLSven Andrighetto: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:14PHIRyan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:45MTLAlexei Emelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:42MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P2 19:36PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P3 7:02PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Laughton – Raffl8:30
xG 0.56–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn12:04
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Umberger – Voracek – Cousins11:24
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:02
xG 0.09–0.13 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere13:35
xG 0.66–0.08 (89%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Medvedev2:45
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Gudas3:22
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Eller – Andrighetto7:41
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Eller – Weise5:30
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Lessio6:22
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Andrighetto – de la Rose2:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Emelin – Subban4:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban13:49
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Emelin – Pateryn7:58
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).