Sat, Feb 20, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 1, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 010 | 011 | 130 |
| FLA | 012 | 18 | 212 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:35WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dustin Byfuglien · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 4:53FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 3:58FLAReilly SmithPPGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:37FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:46WPGTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:13FLAMike Matheson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:22FLAGarrett Wilson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:24FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P2 15:05FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:08WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:56WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ladd – Scheifele – Armia9:56
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp5:12
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry10:27
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Perreault – Ehlers13:43
xG 0.35–1.74 (17%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Myers2:07
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot7:00
xG 0.07–0.18 (26%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba14:43
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Jokinen – Trocheck12:15
xG 1.64–0.22 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Smith – Bjugstad – Rau7:38
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – McKegg3:00
xG 0.26–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Shaw4:54
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Petrovic13:58
xG 2.07–0.46 (82%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad13:01
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Matheson12:08
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).