Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 2, Nashville Predators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 14 | 014 | 011 | 11 | 230 |
| NSH | 112 | 011 | 010 | 01 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Dwight King, Nicholas Shore · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:33NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: James Neal, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- OT 1:18LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:32LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:34LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:17LAKMichael Mersch: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 7:51LAKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:27NSHAnthony Bitetto: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:16LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:59NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:01LAKMilan Lucic: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMersch – Andreoff – Pearson4:39
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Brown – Pearson3:05
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:46
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore5:12
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb9:32
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- McBain – Muzzin5:57
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Martinez – Schenn14:30
xG 0.15–0.55 (21%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg10:33
xG 1.08–0.19 (85%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen8:13
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson6:36
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Watson – Salomaki7:48
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm15:47
xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi14:13
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Jackman – Bitetto6:51
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).