Sat, Feb 20, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 7, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 316 | 313 | 742 |
| DAL | 312 | 08 | 09 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:59DALAles HemskyAssists: Jason Demers, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:24BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Brett Connolly, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:44DALAntoine RousselAssists: Johnny Oduya, Cody Eakin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 16:28DALPatrick SharpAssists: Antoine Roussel, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 13:24BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Joe Morrow, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 13:59BOSKevan MillerAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 19:08BOSLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 4:50BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 17:16BOSBrett ConnollyENAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–3
- P3 19:37BOSMatt BeleskeyPPAssists: Joe Morrow, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.15 xG7–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:28BOSZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:37DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P1 18:25DALVernon Fiddler: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:12BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:12DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:25DALVernon Fiddler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:19DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06DALPatrick Eaves: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:26DALJason Demers: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak12:19
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Kemppainen11:41
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly10:13
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro6:49
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Morrow8:31
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – McQuaid3:11
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller13:51
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Nichushkin4:59
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin11:00
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Spezza – Sharp – Janmark2:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Eakin8:34
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers14:14
xG 1.06–0.35 (75%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Benn – Nemeth13:31
xG 0.53–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:56
xG 0.44–1.01 (30%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).