Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 113 | 14 | 329 |
| EDM | 18 | 09 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14EDMTaylor HallAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:19COLJohn MitchellAssists: Blake Comeau, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 1:23COLTyson BarrieAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 3:49COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 18:19EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:46EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:46COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:58COLMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:48COLAndrew Bodnarchuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:51EDMMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:33EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 19:50COLNick Holden: Holding2 min
- P3 11:14EDMTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:06
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Skille – Martinsen6:51
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – McLeod5:45
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko9:50
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie16:25
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras7:39
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson13:57
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl13:07
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Yakupov4:16
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – McDavid10:59
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Pakarinen5:14
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Schultz11:27
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Nurse2:20
xG 0.07–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Davidson2:37
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).